Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Tough Times Call For Tough Decisions

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Wayne Gretzky, the Hall-of-Fame hockey player was once quoted as stating that the presume for his success was that he "always went to where the puck would be, not where the puck was at."

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Anyone who is able to read or turn on a television has heard the news: we are in a recession. Daily it seems that one company is trying to outdo the other company in terms of how many habitancy they can lay off. Just last week, on one page of the Wall road Journal I counted over 30,000 job positions that were cut due to the poor economic conditions in the marketplace. That's 30,000 moms and dads, sons and daughters, friends and co-workers that no longer have a job...or a source of income. And that was just one day.

Oftentimes these workplace casualties cannot find alternative employment. The follow is an historic whole of habitancy filing for unemployment benefits putting a gargantuan whole of financial strain on the State governments that are supposed to fund the unemployment claims. This, in turn, is prompting the Federal government to draft legislation intended to send crisis bailout money to the States. Just so the States can continue to pay the habitancy who are currently receiving unemployment benefits. No matter where you come down on the political side of the debate, there is one glaring truth to all this: we are in a recession.

It seems that everybody I talk to is in business transaction as to how bad it is out there. In his new book, "The Great Depression Ahead" New York Times Best Selling Author and celebrated economist Harry S. Dent, Jr. Says, "Businesses need to understand that a "survival of the fittest" battle is coming between 2008 and 2012 that will decree the leaders for many decades to come. The businesses with the largest shop shares or niche dominance and with the bottom costs and strongest equilibrium sheets and liquidity will grow stronger and gain long-term shop share, but many more will fail or be taken over by the stronger companies."

Mr. Dent bases his economic forecasts on the demographics of habitancy throughout the world, not just the United States. You may as, "how does this influence me? Why should I care what goes on in India, Indonesia, Latin America or China? My store or shop are in Ohio or South Carolina or California. I am worlds away from these places." Well you should care, because what is going on in the output and manufacturing countries; is going to dictate what you pay for the gas and products you sell.

Remember the .00 per gallon gas last summer? I bet you'd like to forget about selling gas for .00 per gallon and the fact that you might not have had sufficient reputation to keep your tanks full. What about the fact that fuel prices were ranging so rapidly that some were getting caught with gas they had bought a high price and now has to sell under cost?

Do you remember the pain of the consumer who had to spend .00 or more to fill up their vehicles? What about the hit your inside sales took because the high fuel prices often left the consumer with too miniature money to come inside and purchase the products they ordinarily do? Remember the price increases on food products that were a follow of the corn prices going up to help satisfy the demand for ethanol? Which prompted you to charge higher prices for some of the daily items you sell in your store?

All of this sounds like a long time ago, doesn't it? Well, based on the predictions of many economists, we are not out of the woods yet. Opec, the miniature cartel that has made billions and billions of dollars from the run-up in oil prices has publicly stated that they want the price of oil to be at .00 a barrel and they will do anyone it takes to get it there. And since they whether operate or influence over 60% of the world's oil supply, there is a good opening that Opec will get the job done.

Now that I have set the stage for future doom and gloom, let me make my point. Last week I talked with two operators of convenience stores. Both were men in their late fifties and both have been in the company for over 30 years. One has about 6 shop the other one about 40 stores. Both are very knowledgeable about the convenience store company and understand how to purchase fuel, merchandise a store, how to buy correctly and all the other functions of running convenience stores. In short, they were both very experienced operators.

Both of them lost money last year. Why? I believe it's because they took their eye off the ball and lost focus on running their operations. Both of them knew what was going on in the marketplace (with the ranging fuel prices) and did nothing. They were not paying attention to where their company was going until it was too late. There is no sugar-coating this situation. They both lost a lot of money. I know because I have seen their numbers and heard their stories. Admirably, both operators admit that it was their fault, and I respect them for taking responsibility for their actions. They are both very good habitancy and are trying to make a living in this turbulent marketplace. But they messed up and they know it.

So how does apply to you? Because unless you want to become one of the businesses that Harry S. Dent talks about, that doesn't survive the competing evolutionary climate to come; you must be very proactive in your business. You need to surround yourself with competent habitancy who know what questions to ask and have ideas and solutions as to what should be done to remedy the situation. Are you reading your behalf and loss statements as a banker would (i.e. With no emotion and looking things in black and red)? Or are you too personal with the shop you operate and treat them like a family member?

Never fall in love with a company or a building, because it can't love you back. The operators who emerge prosperous from this "survival of the fittest" competition will be those who can stand back, look at their company in an objective manner, and know when to hold them or know when to fold them. They'll be able to cut out the non-performing items within the shop or get rid of the under performing shop altogether and reinvest into new shop or get liquid.

Continuing to operate a non-performing asset is just dumb! Especially in a shop that is not incredible to enhance for any years. Many habitancy will take a wait and see approach. They will wait until the shop is good and try to get a good price for their assets. Nobody wants to sell at the bottom of the market, right? Well, what if we are not at the bottom of the market?

To test this theory, I checked the records on all the shop I had sold five years ago, three years ago and one year ago. I compared their shop values then, to their shop values today and discovered that the shop have decreased in value every single year. These results were based on over 100 shop that were sold by our company within the last 5 years. None of them are worth more today than they were when they were sold. Some of those Sellers still call me to say thanks for selling their shop when they did. Like most habitancy at the time, they belief they had missed the high point of the shop and were hesitant about selling their assets. Ask them about the "wait and see" approach..

I'm not trying to convince you to sell or get out of the business. Quite the opposite actually. Think of this as a call to action. Get your company tuned-up and running properly. Capitalize on the existing opportunities that are available in the market. Yes, the existing opportunities. I told you about the two operators that were losing money, because of their lack of attention to their operations (and by the way, they are correcting their situation by selling off non-performing assets and hiring consultants to guide them straight through the process of correcting their situations). But now I would also like to tell you about the operators that see the great opportunities that are available to them now.

Recently I was talking to a banker friend of mine. He is not only a banker, but a past convenience store operator/retailer and a manufacturer. He knows our commerce well and he too has lived straight through turbulent markets like the one we are experiencing now. He is aware that I consult and work with convenience store operators throughout the country. So I asked him, based on his position and experience, "What businesses are production money right now?" His response was interesting. "The convenience store business", he said.

He knew first hand from his financial connections that the convenience store company (with the selling of tobacco and alcohol and other items that are staples in the convenience store business) was profitable. He had seen the P & L's of dozens of shop that were production money, because they were well run and kept up. He spoke about one 12-store chain where every store was profitable. "Not a non-performing store in the bunch", he said. That was because every time a store became unprofitable the owner whether sold it or done it and replaced it with an additional one profitable store.

I've know him for ages and he reminded me of my time years ago when I was in the entertainment business. He said, "When habitancy have discretionary time whether from lack of work or loss of employment, they tend to spend more money on the things they can get satisfaction from." For example: cigarettes, beer, movies, snacks, sodas. "The presume is simple", he said. "They tell themselves regardless of how bad their economic situation may be, they feel entitled to these items and still deserve the satisfaction derived from them. Therefore, they will spend the money for them."

Believe me, I know this it true having seen it in the early eighties when habitancy were losing their jobs. It seemed that they always had money for color televisions, my movies, a twelve pack of beer or a carton of cigarettes. But they didn't seem to have the money to make the bank payment (this too was verified by my banker friend).

Tough times, call for tough decisions. Don't go the way of the businesses who won't survive because you are reluctant to make the tough decisions today. Take operate of your company and make those tough decisions. It is a lot more productive to make those decisions now rather than waiting and having to make them later...or worse yet having someone else production those decisions for you.

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